I think my rebound is due to the fact that 2012 was actually a strong year for film, which means there was a lot less cynical eye-rolling as I vacillated between the candidates.
But enough stalling. Let's get down to the ballot. Just one disclaimer: I am not to be held responsible for any losses you might incur by following my lead. I will, however, be happy to take a cut of the winnings.
Either way, enjoy the show - even if Seth MacFarlane ruins it with too many Hitler jokes.
BEST PICTURE
Will win: Argo
Should win: Argo
Because it's a perfect distillation of everything a conventional Hollywood film should be -- and this is, after all, a night about Hollywood. After a second viewing of "Life of Pi," however, I'm almost ready to change my mind.
Because it's a perfect distillation of everything a conventional Hollywood film should be -- and this is, after all, a night about Hollywood. After a second viewing of "Life of Pi," however, I'm almost ready to change my mind.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Should win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Because he pulled off the impossible and created a film that actually made me want to pay extra to see it in the best possible venue.
Because he pulled off the impossible and created a film that actually made me want to pay extra to see it in the best possible venue.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Do I need to explain?
Do I need to explain?
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour OK, I actually think Jennifer Lawrence will win, but I'm demonstrating wishful thinking that Academy voters will see past the Weinstein marketing assault and vote the way they should. I loved Silver Linings Playbook and Lawrence's performance, but she'll have plenty more chances at the podium.
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Because she is astounding in the role. Because her co-star wasn't nominated. Because Amour won't win in any other major categories, except Foreign Language Film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Because he's masterful in The Master and none of his equally incredible co-stars, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams, have a chance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Should win: Amy Adams, The Master
Because just when you think you've figured her out, she reveals another side to her talent.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should win: How to Survive a Plague
Because director David France definitively redefined the American hero.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: Inocente
Should win: Inocente
Because it's the only one I've seen and because it's about an inspiring young artist from San Diego.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: Amour
Should win: Amour
Because director Michael Haneke gave us a love story wrapped in a bleak, bloodless horror film.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should win: ParaNorman
Because I've simply never seen anything like it.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi
Again, because I've simply never seen anything like it.
Again, because I've simply never seen anything like it.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Even though much was betrayed by the hyper-vivid HFR photography, the work was exceptional.
Should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Even though much was betrayed by the hyper-vivid HFR photography, the work was exceptional.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: Anna Karenina
Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win:Anna Karenina
Because it was sumptuous and inventive and the best thing about the film.
Because it was sumptuous and inventive and the best thing about the film.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Because Kathryn Bigelow wasn't nominated and his script is the other half of the reason I was riveted for the entire 2 1/2 hours. (I'm choosing to ignore the politics surrounding torture in my assessment because there is simply nothing new to say about it.)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Chris Terrio, Argo
Should win: For the life of me I can't decide.
And because I don't have to, I'm making it a four-way tie between Terrio, David Magee (Life of Pi), Tony Kushner (Lincoln) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook). Think about the range of films and subject matter represented here and you'll see why I think these kinds of contests are fundamentally flawed. Talk about apples and oranges.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will win: Paperman
Should win: Adam and Dog
Because it's serene, picturesque and about the incomparable bond between human and dog. I'm a sucker for sappy dog stories.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will win: Curfew
Should win: Asad
Because it helped me understand a social issue that's otherwise just a news headline, and I love that the cast was made up mostly of Somali refugees.
Should win: Asad
Because it helped me understand a social issue that's otherwise just a news headline, and I love that the cast was made up mostly of Somali refugees.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi
Because it opened up a whole new level in what technology can do for storytelling.
COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Anna Karenina
Because you want to reach out and touch every garment Keira Knightley dons.
FILM EDITING
Will win: Argo
Should win: Argo
Because you can't effortlessly weave intense suspense and humor without one hell of an editor.
SOUND MIXING
Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Les Miserables
Because they sang live, people.
SOUND EDITING
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi
Because I can't get the sound of that shipwreck out of my head.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi
Because it was magical, dramatic and inclusive of non-western sounds.
ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Skyfall, by Adele
Should win: Skyfall, by Adele
Because it's been a long time since a Bond theme song seemed even slightly relevant.
Looks like you got 7 wrong. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI like to look at it as I got 16 right, but that's just me.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts are that there were a few genuine surprises, especially Ang Lee (and I was thrilled to be wrong about that one), and it was a really competitive year. I thought they spread out the awards nicely. Also, I'm by no means a professional awards prognosticator.